Military analysts have been saying for days that Russian forces have “paused” their offensive operations in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. But try telling that to the Ukrainian fighters who are under attack and have dug themselves into defensive positions in towns and villages.
Clashes raged in at least 10 sites in Donetsk province, Ukrainian authorities said Friday, as Russians attempted to improve their positions along a fragmented front line, apparently ahead of what is expected to happen. a much bigger military push to conquer the parts of the province they do not control.
“The occupiers tried to take over the part of the road” that runs between the cities of Bakhmut and Lysychansk, the Ukrainian General Staff said in an evening bulletin reporting a large number of clashes. Russian forces had also conducted “assault operations” in several other locations, including the villages of Nagirny and Bilohorivka, the bulletin said. “Ukrainian soldiers stopped all these evil attempts by the enemy with fire and pushed him back.”
Elsewhere in the province, the bulletin spoke of how Ukrainian soldiers “successfully repulsed another attack” and in another location, “Under the fire of Ukrainian soldiers, the remnants of the enemy forces withdrew.” There was no immediate comment on the fighting from Moscow.
The Donbas, which is close to the Russian border and an area of heavy industry, mining and agriculture, has been the focus of President Vladimir V. Putin’s campaign in Ukraine since Russian forces failed to attack the two main cities of the Ukraine. land, Kiev. the capital, and Kharkov, early in the conflict. The Donbas consists of the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia, said this week that “this is a very temporary postponement; it’s not really an operational break.” Talk about the podcast ‘War on the Rocks’, he said Russian troops were still trying, “not very successfully”, to penetrate fortified Ukrainian positions around the city of Slovenia.
He said the next Russian advance would most likely target that city and another further south, Kramatorsk, and that the battle for Donetsk province could last for months. He and other analysts, including Western intelligence officials, have emphasized that both Russia and Ukraine suffered heavy losses and facing serious staffing problems.
This week, U.S. officials and others familiar with the intelligence assessments estimated that a total of about 20,000 Russians were killed and about 60,000 injured. Russia has tried to recruit more soldiers with big money bonus offers for volunteersUkrainians from separatist areas, mercenaries and militarized units of the National Guard.
Ukraine has also lost significant numbers of soldiers: In June, a senior government official said the country was losing as many as 100 to 200 soldiers every day.
The military also has to deal with material shortages. According to Western officials, nearly a third of Russia’s equipment has been destroyed, although the Kremlin retains a significant advantage in heavy weapons.
That has led Ukrainian officials to repeatedly call for more heavy weapons and ammunition from the West, saying they need the supplies to counter Russia’s long-range advantage. On Friday, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, praised the arrival of the first M270 Multiple Launch Missile Systeman armored vehicle which is the most advanced artillery rocket launcher.
Mr Reznikov said the weapon would be “good company” for the US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. The US has eighth delivered and promised four more of the truck-mounted, multiple rocket launchers. The Ukrainian military says it is using those who arrived to attack Russian bases and depots behind the front lines.
Still, some analysts say Ukraine needs dozens more to fight Russian artillery effectively, and Ukrainian officials have said they need as many as 300 multiple rocket launchers.