Analysts have suggested that Ukrainian troops have six months to push Russian troops back from their territory before the troops tire and a military standoff develops. According to Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CAN, Kherson will prove to be a test for Ukrainian troops to see if they can retake occupied territory.
Kiev has stepped up pressure on Russian forces defending regions to the south as Ukraine attempts to retake the areas around Kherson, which is an important region given its economic strength at the mouth of the Dnipro River, meaning it is also controls the water supply to occupied Crimea.
The six-month deadline is even more urgent as Russia’s new decrees make it easier for Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship and passports in disputed areas.
In these regions, Russia also introduces the ruble as a parallel to Ukrainian hryvnia and insists that education be given in Russian.
Such actions have been condemned by the European Union as a “violation of international law” and “another flagrant violation of UA sovereignty”.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Josep Borrell Fontelles said: “Any attempt to change the status of parts of Ukrainian territory is a clear violation of international law, the UN Charter and the Ukrainian Constitution. , they undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and will not be recognized by the European Union.”
Following Russia’s victory by occupying the entire Donbas region of Ukraine after taking Lysychansk, Putin vowed that the five-month war “hasn’t really started yet”.
Such comments and actions by the Kremlin and its disregard for international law mean that Ukrainian forces are under great pressure to fight back and recoup their losses.
Speaking on the War on the Rocks podcast, Mr Kofman argued that “the most interesting question is not who the 5km [of land], [or even] true, but what are the long-term prospects for the two forces.”
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He added that the focus on lost territory and gains in eastern Ukraine is blurring the bigger picture and that the magnitude of losses and troop replenishment on both sides are now vital.
The Defense Ministry released a new intelligence update on Thursday outlining Russia’s poor progress.
The update read: “In the Donbas, Russian forces continue to conduct artillery strikes across a broad front, followed, in some areas, by intrusive attacks by small companies and platoon units.
“However, they have not made significant territorial progress in the past 72 hours and are in danger of losing any momentum built up after the capture of Lysychansk.”
It added: “The obsolete Soviet-era vehicles, weapons and tactics used by Russian forces do not lend themselves to quickly regain momentum or build up unless they are used in overwhelming mass — which Russia currently does not.” can accomplish.”
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Following US military assistance, Ukraine now has long-range missiles that allow it to attack Russian supply lines and hinder its artillery, and as such could be crucial to the conduct of this war.
Analysis by The Financial Times of data from the Institute for the Study of War found that on July 12, Russia had only enlarged the country under its control by five percent compared to May 1.
Mr Kofman said: “In general, it seems that the Russian armed forces are making gradual progress, but I am very skeptical that they can take Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
“These are heavily fortified areas and at this rate, Russian forces could be exhausted before they can launch successful attacks there.”