Alex Coccalox, a national risk analyst specializing in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, said a senior military officer of Belarus’ special forces wrote a public letter to President Lukaschenko, saying, “Belarus’ participation in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I am openly opposed to the possibility. ” But he also suggested that the letter could be a hoax “performed” by Belarusian leaders to show “why he can’t participate in the Russian war in Ukraine.”
Belarus, Russia’s close ally, had previously threatened to participate in the war in Ukraine.
On June 10, Lukaschenko warned that Belarus could be forced to join the war to fight for western Ukraine.
Belarus has previously stated that it will intervene to support Russia “as needed.”
The country also formally abandoned its non-nuclear and neutral status after a referendum shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russia to place nuclear weapons on its territory.
However, Belarus has also sent various messages regarding the country’s involvement in the war.
In March, Lukaschenko claimed that he had no plans to participate in Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, according to Belarus’ national news agency Bertha.
Lukaschenko also denied allegations that Russian Ukrainians from Belarusian territory had attacked.
Coccalok shared an image of an unconfirmed letter to Twitter and wrote: , # Russia speaks openly against the potential participation of Belarus in the invasion of Ukraine.
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During that time, as many as 30,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the conflict and 100,000 were injured.
Russia reportedly lost more than 4,000 tanks and armored vehicles, 216 fighters, 183 attack helicopters, and 620 unmanned aerial vehicles.
According to the British Ministry of Defense, Russia will be increasingly forced to rely on “reserve forces” as a result of great losses.
The update states: “In the coming weeks, Russia’s campaigns are likely to be more and more dependent on the reserve hierarchy.
“These consist of several different components that Russia is almost certainly already in development.
“Russian Combat Army Reserves are a recent innovation in part-time but volunteer reserves, usually deployed as a whole unit assigned for security tasks in the rear regions.
“Human mobilization resources are a significant pool of all veterans who have served in the regular army over the last five years.
“Russian authorities are likely to be using this category of volunteers to fill a third battalion within a regular brigade.”
“Despite the continued shortage of Ukrainian reserves available, Russian leadership is likely reluctant to order general mobilization,” he said.