The United States would suffer significant losses if a war were to take place with it China beginning, a new study of the potential consequences of conflict in Asia. Tensions between Washington and Beijing have increased in recent months over China’s hostile behavior towards Taiwan. A CSIS International Security Program wargaming exercise has shown that the US Navy would be unprepared for open war with its Chinese counterpart due to limited technological advances.
Assuming Taiwan is able to withstand the initial assault until U.S. and Japanese forces can intervene, the U.S. Navy would lose “dozens of ships, hundreds of planes, and thousands of military personnel.”
Report authors Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian and Eric Heginbotham said: “Such losses would hurt the US global position for years to come.
While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and must defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services.
“China is also suffering badly. Its navy is in ruins, the core of its amphibious forces is broken and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war.”
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They also warned that US losses in a month of conflict with China would exceed the casualties of the war in Afghanistan in 20 years.
The report said: “The United States would in one month of such a conflict suffer as many personnel casualties as it would in 20 years of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“The magnitude and suddenness of such losses would shock a US population unaccustomed to significant military losses.”
The authors warned that Beijing would take “huge risks in launching such an operation” but could still pursue alternative means to undermine Taiwan’s defenses.
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Four-star Air Force General Mike Minihan instructed his staff to prepare for a possible conflict with China in the next two years.
In a memo to staff, Minihan said: “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.
Xi secured his third term in office and established his war council in October 2022.
“The presidential election in Taiwan is in 2024 and will provide Xi with a reason. The presidential election in the United States is in 2024 and will provide Xi with a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
However, the Defense Ministry attempted to downplay the warning, with a spokesperson saying that “these comments are not representative of the Ministry’s view of China”.