What about Tesla’s wait times in China?

In addition to the article below, note the following comment from José Pontes in: its latest China EV sales report (which he publishes monthly). In this comment, aside from references to EV sales for the year so far, José discusses Tesla’s decline in Model 3 sales in China.

“Tesla’s midsize sedan should bounce back in September, likely to #8, but given that the Model 3 was number 2 12 months ago, with some 90,000 registrations, we can see deliveries up 26% year-on-year. decreased. One should be concerned about the future of the US model in China, especially given that this decline occurred in the context of a market with three-digit growth rates and that several Model 3-*******s (namely the BYD Seal and NIO ET5) are about to hit the market. Price drop, anyone?…”

Note, however, that this refers to the Model 3, which went from 92,755 sales in China in the first 8 months of 2021 to 69,025 sales in the first 8 months of 2022, but Model Y sales went from 59,900 sales to 172,711 sales in the same period. Obviously, there is a much bigger increase in Model Y sales than there is a decline in Model 3 sales.

José also noted that in the first 8 months of 2021, Tesla had 10% of Chinese plug-in car sales, but 7% of Chinese plug-in car sales in the first 8 months of 2022.

Above and below are just a few of the puzzle pieces related to the Tesla story in China right now, but take a good look at them and see how you think they fit together and what they mean.

Now let’s see what happens to Tesla vehicle wait times for new buyers in China.

By Peter McGuthrie, courtesy of EVANEX

While Tesla continues to prioritize production output at its Gigafactory Shanghai, the automaker’s wait times in China have decreased as it begins to meet demand again. Most investors know that China is an important market, and the shift towards shorter waiting times is on electric vehicles be significant or not when considering the company’s stock price.

Tesla wait times in China have dropped significantly in recent weeks, as reported by Barron’s, leaving some investors wondering how the automaker’s stock might be affected. Some Tesla wait times in China have dropped by more than a month, with all models now having a minimum estimated delivery time of just one week and a maximum of 10 weeks.

Previously, the shortest wait for a Tesla in China with the entry-level Model Y, which estimated a delivery time of one to four weeks. Now all Model Y and Model 3 variants have estimated delivery times of just one week.

The longest wait times for its models are the Model Y AWD Long Range and Model Y Performance, each with an estimated delivery time of 1 to 10 weeks – less than 14 weeks earlier this week.

Tesla has cut delivery estimates in China three times since completing its production upgrades. Plus, 14 weeks is a decent improvement, as some of Tesla’s models were expected to last 20 weeks last month.

The decline in waiting times could indicate several different things for Tesla’s stock, and bulls and bears are likely to argue one way or another. First, many investors look to demand to help predict the future of the market, and declining wait times could indicate an overall decline in demand.

Yet the waiting times started to decrease within a month Tesla’s production upgrades at Giga Shanghai, and bulls are likely to argue that the drop represents this production increase and not a drop in demand — especially with Tesla’s impressive August delivery numbers. In addition, Tesla’s Giga Shanghai was relieved by the ramp-up of production at Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg, as that factory can now process European orders.

However you spin it, delivery expectations for much of the Chinese auto market — including EV startups and Tesla rivals Li Auto, NIO and XPeng Motors — underperformed significantly. Meanwhile, Tesla nearly doubled its total production potential worldwide between Gigafactories Shanghai and Berlin.

Only time will tell how Tesla’s shorter wait times will affect its stock, but consumers may also be incentivized to buy EVs with wait times that have decreased by more than a month. According to statements made during Tesla’s second-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk also seems to think the decline in lead times is critical, calling the automaker’s long backlog of orders “annoying” for customers.

“That’s annoying. It would be like going to a restaurant and you order a burger and you have to wait 3 hours and like it,” Musk said. “You want your burger right away. Same with the car. So we want those lead times to be shorter.”


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