What analysts expect from Apple's Q2 2024 earnings results

Apple CEO Tim Cook

Apple will report its second quarter results on May 2, with the numbers expected to be released around 4:30 PM EDT that evening. Not long after, at 5:00 PM EDT, Apple CEO Tim cooks and CFO Luca Meesters will explain the finer details of the results as part of the usual analyst call.

Ahead of the release of its financial results, analysts provided their own estimates of what Apple will declare, commenting on what happened in the quarter and what the company will face in the future.

The quarter of last year, Q2 2023will be Apple's Q2 2024 period to which Apple's Q2 2024 period will be directly compared, on an annual basis.

In the second quarter of 2023, Apple reported revenue of $94.3 billion, as well as earnings per share of $1.52.

The iPhone grossed $51.3 billion, iPad managed $6.7 billion and Mac was down to $7.2 billion. Wearables, Home and Accessories reached $8.76 billion, and Services was reported at $20.9 billion.

At the beginning of February the Apple VisionPro became available for purchase. Customers could finally try and purchase the spatial computer headset.

Despite a promising launch, relatively small sales of the Apple VisionPro compared to things like the iPhone, this means it won't have much of a meaningful impact on the results. Still, analysts will want to know more about how things turned out.

During this period, Apple also released updates to the M3 Apple Silicon series, specifically the MacBook Air range.

Analysts will also want to hear Apple's views on other things that happened during the period that could impact the company's position. For example, antitrust lawsuits against the iPhone maker, but also the entry into force of the Digital Markets Act in Europe.

From April 22, the Yahoo Finance agreement of analysts estimate that Apple earns an average of $84.4 billion, with a low estimate of $82.32 billion and a high estimate of $86.15 billion. This is based on the opinion of 24 analysts and represents a year-on-year revenue decline of 5.1 percent.

Based on 27 analysts, earnings per share are estimated at an average of $1.41, with a range between $1.32 and $1.45.

Yahoo Finance consensus versus Apple results

For comparison, the same consensus forecasts an average of $92.94 billion for the second quarter of 2023, with earnings per share of about $1.43. In reality, Apple managed $94.8 billion and $1.52 billion, respectively.

That same consensus projected Apple to earn $94 billion in the second quarter of 2022, with earnings per share of $1.43. At the time, Apple reported revenue of $97.3 billion and earnings per share of $1.52.

On April 29Zacks Equity Research said the consensus expects quarterly earnings per share of $1.51, down 0.7% year over year. Revenue is expected to reach $89.99 billion, down 5.1% year over year.

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider on April 30, JP Morgan expects revenue of $89.1 billion, which is “modestly below” its own consensus benchmark of $90.3 billion. Gross margin is expected to beat consensus at 46.8%, with earnings per share of $1.49.

Citing cyclical challenges, depressed consumer spending and headwinds in China, JP Morgan believes investors will try to 'assess the extent of downside risks'. This could be positive for savvy investors “if earnings cuts are seen as modest and better than feared.”

After the second quarter, third-quarter results are expected to be a “more significant revenue shortfall.”

A comment from April 29 offers year-over-year guidance for this quarter of a 5% decline in sales. Expecting an in-line results report, the analysts say iPhone could make tough year-over-year comparisons, with segment revenue of about $38.4 billion.

Mac sales are “soft” due to consumer trends, while iPad year-over-year trends will “stabilize” thanks to some enterprise exposure. That, and new iPad models are thought to be on the way.

The services sector will still be strong and will partially offset the negative trends in the products sector.

In an April 30 note, Wedbush forecast that Apple will report revenue of $94.8 billion, with earnings per share of $1.52. With weaker iPhone sales expected in China this quarter, sales are expected to decline “modestly” year-over-year.

The “good news” is that Webush believes pent-up iPhone demand and an AI-powered iPhone 16 will help Apple grow in China later in 2024. It expects Cook's tone in the call to be cautiously optimistic, but that is unlikely to be the case. “possibly fireworks” for the iPhone in Q3.

Services remains the “Rock of Gibraltar for Apple”, with the company showing continued strength and growth over the period, possibly showing low to mid-teens growth. After Cook mentioned AI and future announcements throughout the year, Wedbush believes Apple will use more generative AI in iPhone 16, opening a “new frontier of growth” for the company.

AppleInsider will add more analyst forecasts as forecasts come in ahead of financial results.