By announcing that the United States will do so interrupt the delivery of 3,500 bombs As far as Israel is concerned, President Biden has the laudable motive of wanting to spare innocent Palestinians from the military consequences of Hamas using Rafah as its last stronghold in Gaza. Less commendable, but no less understandable, he should also shore up support among progressive voters who think Israel's use of American weapons is implicating us in war crimes.
But motives are not results. And the consequences of Biden's decision, if not reversed quickly, will be the opposite of what he intends. How come? Let me count the ways.
Taking out the ammunition helps Hamas.
The tragedy in Gaza is fundamentally the result of Hamas's decisions: starting the war in the most brutal way; to fight it behind and among citizens; Unpleasant attack the border crossings through which humanitarian aid is provided; and the brutal holding of Israel's 132 remaining hostages, living or dead. Whatever else the arms cut could accomplish when it comes to Israel, it is both a propaganda coup and a tactical victory for Hamas, which confirms its decision to treat its own people as human shields. And it encourages Hamas to continue buying time – especially in the hostage negotiations – with the idea that the longer it holds out, the more likely it will survive.
It doesn't end the war. It extends it.
No Israeli government, even one led by someone more moderate than Benjamin Netanyahu, will leave Gaza while Hamas is still in control of any part of the Gaza Strip. area. If the Biden administration has any ideas on how to do that without breaking away from Rafah, we have yet to hear about them.
That means Israel will invade one way or another, if not with bombs – and the government is also considering banning precision guidance kits – then with much less accurate 120-millimeter tank shells and 5.56-millimeter bullets. Aside from putting Israeli forces at greater risk, does the Biden administration really think the toll on Palestinians will be less after weeks or months of door-to-door fighting?
It diminishes Israel's deterrent power and is a recipe for broader war.
One of the reasons why Israel has not yet waged a full-scale war in the north is that Hezbollah has so far been deterred from a full-scale attack, not least by the fear that it would have an arsenal of weapons. an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles decimated by the Israeli air force. But what if the Lebanese terrorist group looks at reports of Israeli ammunition shortages and decides this is an opportune time to strike?
If that were to happen, the loss of civilian lives in Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities could be enormous. Biden would have no choice but to authorize a massive airlift of munitions to Israel – reversing this week's decision. And the United States should perhaps provide even more direct military support to Israel.
There will be unintended foreign policy consequences.
Israeli doubts about America's reliability as an ally will not lead to Israeli compliance. Instead, it will strengthen his resolve to become much more independent of Washington's influence in ways we may not like. State-of-the-art Israeli cyber technology for Beijing? Closer Israeli ties with Moscow? Americans who accuse Israel of wresting US power will be even less pleased if it becomes a foreign policy freelancer — something Biden should have learned as he tried to turn Saudi Arabia into a global pariah, only to find out: to his own humiliationthe kingdom had other strategic options.
Worse yet, instead of weakening Netanyahu and his political partners within Israel's far-right, it will strengthen them. They will argue that only they have the strength to resist a liberal president who caves to pressure from Israel-hating campus protesters.
It is a political gift to Donald Trump.
While the anti-Israel chants on college campuses may be loud, they are not particularly influential: few voters, including young people, put the war in Gaza somewhere near the top of their list of political priorities. But a clear majority of Americans support or even want to increase current levels of support for Israel. according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. The shutdown will further alienate pro-Israel voters and only partially mollify anti-Israel voters, who will now pressure the president to go much further.
In other words, it's a classic case of falling through the cracks. It also plays into the perception that Biden is weak – unable to stand up to his party's left flank, and a worthless ally of our embattled friends. The last time the United States abandoned an ally, in Afghanistan, the result was a political debacle from which the president's popularity never recovered. Why would the White House want to remind voters of that episode?
There is still time for the president to reverse this ill-considered decision. Netanyahu and his ministers can help by showing that they are taking immediate, visible and meaningful steps to get Palestinian citizens out of harm's way. But an arms shutdown that weakens Israel as it faces enemies on multiple fronts is unworthy of a president whose clear and strong support for the Jewish state was — and should remain — at its lowest point. his finest hour.