The outrage of young Americans over the war between Israel and Hamas has dominated the political conversation for weeks. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have made pilgrimages to Columbia University and other campuses to support or denounce demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza, and President Biden addressed the upheavals in remarks Thursday.
But according to recent polls, these headlines don't reflect the top concerns of young voters this election year. Surveys in recent months show that young voters are more likely to sympathize with the Palestinians in the conflict, but few of them consider the war between Israel and Hamas as one of their top issues in the 2024 elections. Like other voters, young people place economic issues often top the list.
And while young voters are cooler for Mr. Biden than at the same point in 2020, there is little evidence that US support for Israel's invasion of Gaza is a critical factor in their relative dissatisfaction.
“When you have two presidents who have the same position on one issue, that issue automatically becomes – I hate to say it lower on the list because it's obviously an important issue, but it doesn't make it an issue that I focus on . I'm going to choose Donald Trump over Joe Biden,” said Devon Schwartz, a student at the University of Texas at Austin.
Schwartz, 19, a student of both Muslim and Jewish descent who is active in a campus group that promotes interfaith dialogue, felt that the protests at his university, which have police action, were 'a historic moment'. And he said he would have liked the opportunity to vote for a candidate who is “more progressive on Israel” than Mr. Biden was in November. But he still plans to vote for him.
“I want to see policy changes from Joe Biden,” he said. “I don't want to vote for Donald Trump and see the exact same policies.”
American sympathies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have shifted modestly toward the Palestinians over the past decade. While 51 percent of Americans remain more sympathetic toward Israelis, 27 percent now sympathize more with the Palestinian people, compared to 12 percent in 2013, the report said. Gallup.
This shift is largely generational and most likely reflects not only changes in the conflict itself and a rightward turn in Israeli politics, but also a decade in which pro-Palestinian activists have worked to connect the cause to domestic movements in the United States, such as Black lives matter and campaigns to divest from Israel have done so as well gained ground on college campuses.
The latest poll of the Pew Research Center finds that 18 to 29 year olds are three times as likely to sympathize with Palestinians in the conflict than those over 65, and twice as likely as adults as a whole.
“Not necessarily everyone is as excited about it as we see among those protesting,” said Laura Silver, deputy director of global research for Pew. “But 18- to 29-year-olds are very different from older Americans.”
Recent polls suggest that these sympathies have yet to translate into prioritizing the war as a voting issue in 2024.
At the Harvard Institute of Politics Youth survey Coming shortly before last month's wave of campus demonstrations and repression, 18- to 29-year-old Americans overwhelmingly blamed Mr. Biden for his handling of the Gaza conflict, with 76 percent disapproving and 18 percent it approved. But only 2 percent of them called this their top concern heading into the election, compared to 27 percent who said they were most concerned about economic issues.
In a Economist/YouGov Survey More recently, in late April, 22 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 named inflation as their most important issue. Two percent cited foreign policy as their top concern. (The poll did not specifically ask about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.)
“My friends and I, we are all very concerned about the war in the Middle East, and we don't agree with the Biden administration's agenda there,” said Coral Lin, 20, a student at Duke University. She said she had a friend who “voluntarily” voted during a Democratic primary to protest the issue.
“But I still know many people who hold that view and are still voting for Biden,” she said, noting that her own climate concerns and her belief that Mr. Trump is a threat to democracy prompted her have brought to continue supporting Mr. Biden.
Clara Getty, 21, a University of Virginia student and Biden supporter, said she saw parallels with Lyndon B. Johnson's woes during the 1968 Democratic primaries as she faced outrage over the Vietnam War — and a cautionary tale. “He has made so much progress on domestic issues that I think he could have benefited enormously from a second term,” she said. “And I think there's so much that's similar for Biden.”
Others, however, argued that even if the Gaza conflict does not lead to a mass exodus of young voters to Mr. Trump, it could spell trouble for Mr. Biden if young people don't vote.
“You're hearing from a lot of people who are becoming increasingly apathetic about voting for Joe Biden,” said Cameron Driggers, a 19-year-old student at the University of Florida and member of the state Democratic Party's youth council.
Mr. Driggers, an organizer of an Israeli divestment campaign on his campus, noted that Mr. Biden would need not only votes but also youth organizers to win in 2024, including many who had become active in protest politics around Gaza.
“He basically continues to spit in the face of youth organizers across the country,” he said. “He especially infuriates the people who are going to vote.”
In a statement, Biden campaign spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg noted the campaign's investments in its own campus organizers and youth groups, and its intention to “continue to show up and engage with young voters on the issues they care about.” , including climate. change, gun laws and student loans.
The Biden administration recently announced more changes to student loan repayments, and Mr. Biden directed his administration to consider reclassifying marijuana as a minor drug. His campaign promoted his position on X on April 20 at exactly 4:20 p.m.
Mr. Driggers said he had broadly supported Mr. Biden before the Gaza invasion, citing his moves to liberalize marijuana policy, support for labor rights and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. But his support was tested by Gaza.
“I recognize that Trump will almost certainly be worse than Biden on all of these counts,” he said. “But at some point there has to be a limit” for Biden. “And I think he's almost over that.”