The poll put the Green Party – which has faced leadership turbulence – at 9% of the vote, ACT at 11%, NZ First at 3% and Te Pāti Māori at 2%.
The numbers — if they held up — would mean that National and ACT together would have enough seats to form the next government.
Those numbers would mean Labor would get 44 seats and the Green Party would add 11 to 55 — less than the 60 needed to form a government, even with Te Pāti Māori’s three seats.
It is similar to the previous results from the end of May: the national position held steady at 39%, Labor lower at 35, Greens higher at 10, ACT lower at 7 and Te Pāti Māori held the balance of power at 2%.
At that time, Ardern was at 33% and Luxon at 25% on ‘Most Preferred Premier’ stocks.
National is fresh from his first party conference with Luxon as leader, where he announced a new welfare policy that was roundly criticized by Ardern, Labor and the Greens, and some support service groups.
None of that would have been made public when the polls were held, but the ongoing battle with rising inflation, a shortage of workers, a health sector in crisis and heightened international tensions will all have played a part in respondents’ concerns.
Between July 30 and August 3, 2022, 1023 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (504) and online, using online panels (519).
The maximum sampling error was approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
Among the parties outside parliament, NZ First is up two points to 3% and the Opportunities Party remains stable at 2%.
The poll also features the first appearance, at 1%, of Vision NZ.
The party is led by Hannah Tamaki, wife of Brian Tamaki who founded Destiny Church and the Freedom and Rights Coalition, one of the key groups involved in the recent occupation of Parliament.
The New Conservative Party, which also has ties to the occupation and the wider anti-government protest movement, remains at 1%.
Social Credit Democrats also round the numbers to 1%.
– RNZ/NZ Herald