Invercargill feels like it’s on the cusp of change in many directions, but will the biggest change be in the mayor’s office? Logan Hearty reports.
ANALYSIS: After a strong start, a bit of flip-flops and a change of mind, Invercargill voters now have their official ten mayoral candidates to choose from in what is the biggest campaign since 1998.
It should also be noted that a 34-strong field of councilors has also emerged for the 12 seats around the council table.
But for now the big question remains who will take the first place at the table.
In any horse race, in this case a mayoral race, gamblers like to judge form when identifying their pick.
READ MORE:
* Sir Tim Shadbolt stands for the seat of Invercargill Councilor and Mayor
* Prominent broadcaster Marcus Lush wants to become mayor of Invercargill
* Invercargill man Steve Chernishov wants to roll on multiple boards
So, who could be the hypothetical bookmakers’ favorite at this early stage, among incumbent Sir Tim Shadbolt, current Deputy Mayor Nobby Clark, current Councilor Darren Ludlow, former Deputy Mayor Toni Biddle, former New York City Councilor Zealand first MP Ria Bond, self-confessed 60-year-old TikToker Tom Morton, current Bluff Community Board member Noel Peterson, broadcaster Marcus Lush, school teacher Steve Chernishov and Jacqueline Walter, who was a late nomination.
When approached about the mayoral bid shortly after the nominations closed on Friday, Walter said she had no comment.
Opinions seem to be wildly divided on how this election will unfold and that uncertainty suggests that 2022 will be the most wide-open mayoral game in Invercargill in many years.
There is no doubt that Shadbolt has had a firm grip on the mayoral chains for the past 24 years.
His victory margins have fallen in every election since 2001, but in 2019 he still won comfortably with 48% of the 20,000 votes. He had a majority of 3,427 votes.
The key question is how much of that support, for him and for re-electable councillors, has been dented in recent months following two independent reports that investigated the city council after concerns were raised by the Home Office.
History suggests that voters in Invercargill have a strong need for a “celebrity mayor,” and is that where national broadcaster Marcus Lush could potentially become an early favorite because of that status alone?
A look back at the 2021 municipal elections highlights the power of national brand awareness. Lush got 7,371 votes, the next candidate got only 1,534 votes.
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Invercargill’s 2022 mayoral candidates. Above, from left, Toni Biddle, Ria Bond and Darren Ludlow. Center, from left, Nobby Clark, Steve Chernishov and Noel Peterson. Below, from left, Tom Morton, Marcus Lush and Sir Tim Shadbolt.
Looking at those who are back for a second chance at the mayoral chains, Ludlow would start with the shortest odds.
He has consistently been a candidate for the high voting council during his time on the council, finishing second to Shadbolt in the last election.
Chernishov is the other back for a second try and if he wins it would be a great performance.
The Invercargill school teacher only got 623 votes out of 20,000 votes cast in 2019.
Bond also planned to crack the mayoralty in 2019, but her nomination form was filled out incorrectly and ultimately never entered the contest. However, no mistake was made this time with her nomination well in advance.
A former New Zealand First Member of Parliament, in her first speech in 2015, she wanted to work in harmony with the Invercargill Council, among others, so that Invercargill is not forgotten in Wellington.
Polls for the City Council in 2019 suggest that current Deputy Mayor Nobby Clark has every reason to believe he has a chance.
He was the highest candidate for councilor with 10,802 votes, ahead of Ludlow (9936) and Biddle (9847) who were just behind him.
Over the past three years, Clark has been clear that his focus is on advocating taxpayers rather than following a party line. It sometimes creates tension with municipal colleagues, but the fact is that it is the public that will decide whether they want him as mayor or not.
Biddle looms as an interesting figure in the race, as she was also high in the polls for City Council in 2019. Her decision to step down from the council in mid-2020 ended in a verbal outburst. The outgoing deputy mayor described the council’s environment as toxic and felt she was fulfilling the role of mayor, but without the mandate of the public.
Biddle says she is returning with more clarity about what she wants to achieve and that she is seeking a mandate from the public to lead the city.
If there is an early prize for the most hard-working candidate, Peterson might win it. He attends most council meetings as an observer and can be seen at most public events.
Peterson has also amassed 8,890 followers on the social media platform TikTok. Fellow candidate, Morton, bases almost his entire campaign around TikTok, where he has 5,500 followers. He suggests that people should not ignore the influence the platform could have.
However, time will tell whether a strong TikTok following actually leads to votes.