They study his interviews, prepare for mass deportations and prepare policy proposals to bring to the negotiating table.
As Mexico heads toward presidential elections next month, government officials and campaign aides are also preparing for another vote: one in the United States that could return Donald Trump to the presidency.
The last time Trump took office, his victory surprised many of America's allies, and his threat-filled diplomacy forced them to adapt along the way. Now they have time to anticipate how Trump's victory would change the relations that President Biden has tried to normalize — and they are furiously preparing for an upheaval.
For some, the memory of negotiations with Trump during his last term, when he used extreme threats against Mexico, looms large.
What did it take to reach a deal with Trump's team at the time? “Time, patience, cold blood,” former Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said in an interview. “You can win if you understand this. It is not easy.”
In Mexico, officials say it could be even more difficult to work with Trump this time. The former president has promised “the largest deportation operation in American history,” the idea went 100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico And promised to deploy American Special Forcesas he put it, “waging war against the cartels.”
Behind the scenes, the Mexican government is talking to people close to the Trump campaign about proposals such as the former president's threat of a “universal tariff” on all imported goods, and working to resolve trade differences ahead of U.S. elections, a senior official said. Mexican official who was not authorized to speak publicly.
The goal, the official said, is to leave the future Mexican government as best equipped as possible to deal with Trump.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico built a close working relationship with Mr. Trump in the early years of his administration, despite Mr. Trump's repeated threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and make the country pay for a border wall.
But Mr. López Obrador will step down once his term ends after presidential elections in June, in which polls show a significant advantage for his protege, Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City.
The unwritten rules of Mr. López Obrador's relationship with Mr. Trump were that Mexico do as much as possible on migration, and that the White House let him pursue his domestic priorities without interfering. That seemed to work for both men.
The Mexican leader did that praised Mr. Trump for respecting Mexican sovereignty. Trump, in turn, has called the Mexican leader “a friend” and “a great president.”
But it is unclear how Trump would handle one of the top two presidential candidates.
“We will have good relations with President Trump or President Biden,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in an interview. “We will always defend Mexico and Mexicans in the US – and we want an equal relationship.”
Xóchitl Gálvez, the main opposition candidate, said she too could work with either man as president.
“Obviously, I would prefer to work with a respectful and gracious gentleman like Joe Biden,” Ms. Gálvez told The New York Times. “But in my professional and political life I have dealt with all forms of masculinity,” she said. “It wouldn't be the first time I've confronted a character with complicated masculinity, so I could work with Trump just fine.”
Campaign staff are drawing up plans for both outcomes.
“I'm not worried, but we will be prepared,” said Juan Ramón de la Fuente, a member of Ms. Sheinbaum's team, referring to a possible Trump victory. “We are preparing for both scenarios.”
On migration, “we need to be more effective in reducing irregular crossings,” said Mr. de la Fuente, who recently served as Mexico's ambassador to the United Nations and is seen as a potential candidate for foreign minister in a possible Sheinbaum administration.
But he also pointed out that US laws act as “a not very healthy incentive” that helps encourage migration, “because the moment you touch the land you are an asylum seeker.”
Some officials in Mexico believe the country has more influence over its relations with the United States than in the past. The White House has relied heavily on it Mr López Obrador wants to slow migration at the US southern borderand that cooperation has given Mexico significant influence on one of the most important issues in American politics.
“Structurally, Mexico is gaining more power relative to the United States,” Ebrard said. The Mexican economy has performed relatively well in recent years factories have become an attractive alternative to China for the United States.
Like Mexico, “every government in the United States needs you for their migration policies,” he said. “The geopolitical tension is in some ways working for a stronger Mexico.”
Mr. Ebrard, who is part of Ms. Sheinbaum's campaign and seen as a possible Cabinet member if she wins, led negotiations with Mr. Trump's advisers while in office.
On trade, “their priority was labor reform and raising wages in Mexico,” Mr. Ebrard said. That was palatable to Mexico, since the López Obrador administration had campaigned on a left-wing platform and committed to increasing Mexican salaries.
In the area of migration, the real demand was much more difficult to meet. Mr. Trump wanted “a dramatic reduction” in border crossings, Mr. Ebrard said, but disagreed with Mexico on investing in ways to address the causes that drive people to migrate.
Still, Mexico managed to push the government to acknowledge its position, he said.
In December 2018, the Trump administration joined a Mexican-led initiative and committed billions of dollars in private and public investments Central America – although months later the former president cut off all aid to the region in response to the migrant caravans.
The Mexican government has been criticized for getting too little in return for its agreement to accept tens of thousands of returning asylum seekers under the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy. But the administration also scored clear victories, including renegotiating the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada.
Ms. Gálvez argued that the administration missed an opportunity to secure more rights for undocumented Mexicans in the United States and protect migrants stuck in Mexico, but she also praised the trade deal.
“In that sense, Mexico has won, won a lot with Trump,” Ms. Gálvez said, adding that Mr. Trump never actually imposed the tariffs he threatened. “It didn't turn out that bad.”