The head of the International Energy The Agency warned that if the possibility of a cold winter without Russian gas looms, EU solidarity could fall apart. In the past year, Russia has increased the flows of natural gas to the bloc, which is heavily dependent on Moscow for its energy needs. Vladimir Putin has retaliated against Western sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine by cutting off flows through the Nord Stream pipeline.
As the EU makes efforts to replace Russia’s gas supplies, many countries fear the Kremlin could halt all flows to Europe in the winter, plunging the continent into darkness.
In such a scenario, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, warned that if there were a winter fuel shortage, the continent could find itself in a frenzied struggle for energy, sparking social unrest.
He added that he feared “a wild west scenario” could be imminent, with EU countries restricting their own trade, or stopping cooperating with neighboring countries if tensions mount due to fuel shortages.
In an interview at the inaugural Global Clean Energy Action Forum in Pittsburgh, Mr. Birol said, “The implications will be very bad for energy, very bad for the economy, but extremely bad politically. If Europe fails this energy test, it could go beyond the energy implications.”
As the European Commission tried to maintain a united stance against Russia, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is increasingly faced with major failures, notably over the recent EU plan to tackle the energy crisis.
Earlier this month, the Commission proposed a number of measures to reduce energy costs, including imposing a price cap on Russian gas.
These include mandatory measures to reduce electricity demand, a cap on revenues for companies that generate electricity from cheap sources such as wind, a solidarity tax on fossil fuel companies that make large profits and facilitating support for ailing utilities.
However, many of these proposals have met opposition from member states, especially as Putin threatened to cut flows completely if the EU took such a step.
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Mr Birol warned that “two scenarios” could take place this winter: “EU and members will work in solidarity and support each other…or there is another scenario, if everyone is for themselves.”
Speaking of the latter scenario, he said: “One of the EU’s founding values is solidarity. It will negatively impact the weight of the EU around the world.”
Last month, Norway, a major gas exporter behind Russia, was criticized by its neighbors for considering cutting electricity exports while the country replenished its hydroelectric reservoirs.
However, Andreas Bjelland Eriksen, State Secretary at the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, denied that the country would stop exports. ”.
Although Norway is Britain’s largest gas supplier, the country faces mounting pressure and civil unrest, with experts warning that the country could curtail gas exports to Europe and the UK.
Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief analyst at consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, noted that the drought in Norway this summer could affect Europe’s energy security.
Asked whether the skyrocketing bills and civil unrest could lead to pressure on the government to cut gas supplies, he told Express.co.uk: “There is certainly discussion at the moment. One of the key issues is the discussion on energy bills and Norway’s energy exports, not only gas, but also electricity exports through cables.
“The risk is that countries will look more inward, making sure they do everything they can to keep energy prices low at home before they start taking their neighbors into account.
“Norway is currently still exporting normally, but it is clearly being looked at. It is a big part of the national debate, with different parties taking different positions, it is definitely at the top of the agenda at the moment.”