Russia has failed to take a country for the first time in the war this week as it appeared to halt large-scale offensives in Donbas in anticipation of a renewed attack.
Wednesday was the first day since the start of the war that Russia neither claimed nor was deemed to have made any territorial gains, the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said yesterday.
A Russian rocket attack on Kramatorsk has killed at least one civilian and injured six others, despite the slowdown in frontline fighting. Small-scale fighting was reported elsewhere as Moscow tried to hold up the pressure Ukraine†
The silence may indicate that Moscow is taking an “operational break” to reconstitute its forces for an attack on Ukraine’s strongholds of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk after the grueling two-month battle for the Luhansk region.
Reconstruction requires rest and replacement of exhausted soldiers and equipment, as well as reorganization of the command structure and composition of units for the upcoming mission. Both tasks are time-consuming, although they do not entail a complete halt to the combat operation.
After Vladimir Putin ordered a withdrawal from Kiev in March, it took about six weeks for his army to be in position to attack Donbas.
Russian commanders are likely to be under pressure to advance before more Western heavy weapons arrive to bolster Ukrainian defenses.
A series of attacks in the past week have hit Russian ammunition depots as Ukraine tries to starve Russian artillery of shells.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday that Western artillery systems, including US Himars and British M270 multiple launch missile systems “started working very vigorously”.
“Our defenders are carrying out noticeable attacks on depots and other places important to the logistics of the occupiers. This significantly reduced the offensive potential of the Russian military,” he said.
Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council, told the Wall Street Journal that the country had received nine Himars thus far. The US initially said it would deliver eight by the end of July.
Other officials have warned that the supplies are not enough to match the Russians gun-for-gun and that many more weapons are needed to stop the invasion.
Putin said the West was welcome to “try” Russia on the battlefield.
“Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. What can you say, let them try. We have often heard that the West wants to fight with us to the last Ukrainian. This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but it seems that everything is coming down to this,” he told Russian parliamentary leaders in television commentary.
Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are likely next targets for Russia after Ukraine pulled out of Lysychansk on Sunday, its last foothold in Luhansk.
Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of the Donetsk region, said six buildings, including a hotel and an apartment building, were damaged in the attack on Kramatorsk and warned the first death toll could rise.
“This is a deliberate attack on civilians. This will continue until we expel them,” he said.
Vadym Lyakh, mayor of Slovyansk, said there were casualties after the city came under fire, but gave no further details.
Oleh Synyehubov, head of Kharkiv’s regional military administration, said at least three people were killed and five injured in a rocket attack on Kharkiv.
Back home in Russia, Vladimir Putin has fired the deputy head of the Russian Orthodox Church and arrested a rocket scientist in a crackdown on anti-war sentiments.
The Russian Synod said Metropolitan Hilarion had been sent to Budapest, a remote diocese, and “will be relieved of his duties as chairman of the External Ecclesiastical Relations Department, a permanent member of the Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church”.
Meanwhile, Moscow police this week arrested Colonel Andrey Grudzinsky, who works at the Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences, and charged him with fraud.
It is the latest in a purge of anti-war Russian officials and academics who have expressed negative views about the war in Ukraine.
Telegraph Media Group Limited [2022]