The share of Swedish plug-in electric vehicles recovered in September, gaining 55.2% of the car market from 53.9% a year ago. All-electric saw a 35.3% share, their second-highest ever since December last year. Plug-in hybrids fell slightly year over year. Total vehicle volumes were down 3% year-on-year and about 21% from pre-2020 seasonal norms. The best-selling BEV in September was again the Volkswagen ID.4.
September’s combined plug-in result of 55.2% included a near-record 35.3% battery electrics (BEVs) and 19.8% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). These compare to respective shares of 32.9% and 21.0% a year ago. The share of BEVs has thus grown modestly, but the PHEVs have fallen. BEV stock was nevertheless the highest YTD, second only to the December 2021 peak (see timeline chart below).
In terms of volume, in a total auto market contracting 3% year on year, BEVs grew slightly (7,454 to 7,777) and PHEVs lost volume (4,751 to 4,370).
Plugin growth is generally weak in September and YTD overall, though not due to a lack of BEV demand. Tesla’s recent production stoppages meant that their delivery volume in Sweden was just 915 units in September, down more than 1,000 units year on year (from 1,979 units).
Putting Tesla aside for a moment, non-Tesla BEVs have actually increased their delivery volumes by 25.3% year-over-year, which paints a much healthier picture. If Tesla had simply followed (or probably exceeded) this trend, BEVs would have hit a new all-time high of 37.6% in September.
There is no lack of growth in demand for BEVs – there are even long wait times – the problem is simply a lack of supply to supply Swedish consumers.
On the other hand, the combustion-only share fell below 32% for the first time in history. Their combined volume fell nearly 20% year-over-year to 7,033 units, a new low (and below BEV sales). The steady decline in incineration-only sales is clearly leading to a gradual decline in the fleet of polluting vehicles on Swedish roads.
Top BEVs
With Tesla’s Shanghai snuff, their usual quarter-end peak — putting them in first place in every quarter-end for the past year — wasn’t enough this time to outpace competitors. Instead, Volkswagen took first place with the ID.4, from the Volvo XC40 and the Kia Niro.
The Volvo is back on top after spending the past 3 months in the wilderness (well outside the top 20). Its brother, the Volvo C40, also had a similar fate, taking 7th place.
The Kia Niro, which has typically been a fixture in the Swedish top 3 in recent years, had seen a notable decline in July and August, because the stock of the previous variant ran out and the renewed version arrived. Now that the new version has finally appeared, de Niro is back in the top 3.
Other notable events in September were the first appearance in Sweden of the new Nissan Ariya. It saw initial volumes of 55 units and is likely to rise rapidly from here. The long-awaited MG4 also made a first impression, albeit for the time being only with showroom volumes (6 units). It will be at least another month or two before it arrives in notable volumes, but it seems likely destined for the top 10 given the competitive pricing and popularity of its older MG ZS sibling (regularly in the top 5 over the past year) .
Let’s take a step back for a broader perspective, let’s take a look at the 3 month performance of the top BEV models:
To date, the Tesla Model Y has always been in the top 3, and often the leader. With the underperforming peak at the end of the quarter this time around (probably temporary, discussed above), it is now down to 6th place.
The Volkswagen ID.4, also regularly in the top 3, has now taken the top spot. Its group brother, the Skoda Enyaq, has moved up to 2nd place.
Despite a low volume in September, the MG ZS is in 3rd place in the last 3 months. The Kia Niro dropped a few spots during the refresh, but got back on track in September, so it’ll be retaking the top 3 soon.
Here’s an overview of the top climbers from the past 3 months, compared to the April-June period:
Which models have lost their ranks in the meantime? The Tesla Model Y has suffered, as we discussed. Here’s the summary:
Note that we cannot draw too many deep conclusions from one set of results. The e-tron and Marvel R both climbed the rankings in our July report, while the Leaf fell. For now, their fate is reversed.
In a relatively low volume market like Sweden, we can only say that logistics batching and similar allocation decisions can change the ranking quite a bit in short periods.
Models that consistently rank in the top 10 are clearly doing something right in terms of value proposition and appeal, but – at this early stage of EV transitions – much of their success could be due to simply “popping up” in available volumes .
Conversely, models outside the top 10 can also be very attractive, limited only by the offer (either global or that allocated to Sweden). The Cupra Born, for example, might fall into the latter category, and so is the MG4, at least for now.
Until global battery manufacturing capacity (and other key supply chains) has caught up with the growth in BEV demand, we won’t know which models, brands and value propositions people will choose in an open and unrestricted market. This will not get completely out of hand until the early 2030s.
Outlook
The Swedish car market is firmly in the hot zone of the transition to EV, although progress this year has been limited by supply. In the grand scheme of things, the question is arguably much more important, and in this regard it is clear that Sweden has already voted resolutely to move quickly to EVs.
With fuel prices rising significantly across Europe, relative interest in plug-ins remains high. Despite high electricity prices and shocking energy price inflation, the operating cost savings for plug-ins compared to combustion engine vehicles are still very significant.
The growth of the plug-in share in the remaining months will be driven almost entirely by supply, rather than by any constraint on demand. We know that many BEVs still have 12-month waiting lists, while combustion-only vehicles have shorter waiting times on average, reducing their performance.
What are your expectations for Sweden’s transition for the rest of this year and in 2023? Please head to the comments below to share your thoughts.
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