The Rafah Debate – The New York Times

Central to the dispute between President Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu about the invasion of Rafah is a larger disagreement over what Israel can reasonably hope to achieve against Hamas.

In today's newsletter, I will lay out the contrasting positions of Biden and Netanyahu and summarize The Times' latest reporting on the war.

For Netanyahu and his aides, the destruction of Hamas is an essential goal. The Israeli military has already made progress, having dismantled at least 18 of Hamas' 24 battalions since the October 7 attacks. But top Hamas leaders and thousands of fighters survived, many apparently fleeing to the tunnels under Rafah.

Allowing a cornered enemy to escape violates the basic rules of military strategy, Israeli officials say. “Ending the war without evacuating Rafah is like sending a firefighter to put out 80 percent of the fire,” Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's war cabinet and Netanyahu's main political opponent, has told US officials. The Wall Street Journal editorial board, which tends to support Netanyahu, called Rafah “the crucial city for the future of the terrorist group.”

Israeli officials also know that many Arab leaders despise Hamas and see it as a threat to their own regimes. These leaders would quietly rejoice if Israel crushed the group. Some Palestinians are too angry at Hamas (although public opinion in Gaza is difficult to gauge).

However loud the international warnings about a Rafah invasion may be, Israeli leaders believe that a successful operation there would change the strategic equation – and that they would then be able to negotiate from a position of strength with both the remnants of Hamas and Arab countries .

For Biden – and for many leaders of other countries – destroying Hamas is simply not a realistic goal. The group's fighters are in deep, fortified tunnels that could take months if not years to eliminate, U.S. intelligence officials say. Even if Israel killed most of the remaining fighters, new ones would emerge.

Not only could the benefits of attempting to eradicate Hamas be small, but the costs also appear large, U.S. officials believe. The hostages Hamas is still holding – and who are likely being held alongside the group's leaders – could die. And the humanitarian toll in Rafah, where many Gaza refugees have fled, could be devastating. 'Encountering Rafah' a Biden aide said yesterday“will not lead to the lasting and lasting defeat of Hamas.”

The first Israeli operation in Rafah has already incurred costs. After Israeli forces took over one side of a border crossing with Egypt, Egyptian officials temporarily closed the crossing, preventing aid from entering, U.S. officials say. Egypt — which has long blockaded Gaza residents partly out of fear of Hamas — worries that a battle for Rafah could lead to an unstoppable flow of refugees.

An invasion could also cause division outside Egypt. Saudi Arabia has previously indicated its interest in a diplomatic deal with Israel, which could strengthen Israel's position as part of an anti-Iran alliance alongside Arab countries and the US. But a rise in civilian deaths in Gaza could make it difficult for Saudi Arabia to justify this. any agreement whatsoever. (Thomas Friedman, a Times Opinion columnist, has argued that Israel must choose between Rafah and Riyadhthe Saudi capital.)

Some moderate Israeli officials agree with parts of this criticism. “Completely overthrowing Hamas and bringing the hostages home are two conflicting goals,” Major General Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli military intelligence chief, has said. “We have already accomplished the most important thing: dismantling Hamas as an organized army capable of carrying out an attack on October 7.”

Ultimately, the debate may be less binary than it sometimes seems. There is a third option, and it appears to be the one favored by the Biden administration, notes my intelligence colleague Julian Barnes.

In this scenario, Israel would agree to end major military operations – and accept a “sustained calm,” as negotiators call it – and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. In return, Hamas would return all hostages in phases.

Israel could then strike a diplomatic deal with Saudi Arabia, under which an Arab coalition would govern Gaza and sideline Hamas. And Israel would retain the right to carry out targeted operations against top Hamas officials such as Yahya Sinwar. US officials question the wisdom of a full-scale invasion, but not the strategic value of eliminating the Hamas leaders who planned October 7.

  • Ceasefire negotiations hitting a snag yesterday when participants became angry about Israel's invasion of Rafah. The CIA director left Cairo, where the talks took place, as did delegations from Israel and Hamas.

  • Israel and Hamas appear to be engaged in 'dead-cat diplomacy', Peter Baker writes – with each trying to ensure the other is blamed if they fail to reach a deal.

  • Even if the US halts arms shipments to Israel, as Biden has threatened, Israeli officials say they have done so enough ammunition to fight in Rafah.

  • The World Health Organization warned that hospitals in southern Gaza had only a few days' fuel left.

  • Donald Trump accused Biden of abandoning Israel, saying: “Every Jewish person” who voted for Biden”should be ashamed.”

  • American Muslim and Arab leaders voice their communications with the White House have largely been demolished. That could pose a problem for Biden's re-election.

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