What does a path towards more ambitious renewable energy targets look like?

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As a necessary step to stay on track to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, the world must reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Renewable energy targets have been controversial, evolving, and ambitious in various ways since the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, there is a growing discussion within the energy community about the feasibility of achieving a 100% global sustainable energy system.

Proponents of 100% renewable energy scenarios argue that there is mounting evidence that such an energy system – completely devoid of fossil fuel and nuclear energy production – is both technologically feasible and offers the lowest cost and most environmentally sustainable option for decarbonization .

The International Renewable Energy Agency's Coalition for Action (IRENA) is trying to settle the debate over whether 100% renewable energy goals can be achieved. In a new reportthey compare three 100% renewable energy scenarios and two net-zero emissions scenarios, trying to go beyond the feasibility debate for each individual scenario.

The study identifies common challenges and opportunities for a rapid and holistic shift towards more ambitious renewable energy targets and provides related policy recommendations. It outlines actions that can facilitate the success of such scenarios and identifies the requirements to support a 100% sustainable energy system by mid-century.

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The IRENA Coalition for Action states that the majority of anthropogenic emissions are due to energy-related activities. To meet renewable energy targets, harnessing solar, wind, hydro, geothermal bioenergy, ocean energy and others technologies, along with significantly increased energy efficiency measures, will be key to emissions reductions.

Net-zero system scenarios are fundamentally based on 2 factors:

• phasing out fossil fuels and nuclear energy, while mitigating sectoral impacts
• assuming that fossil and nuclear use, with carbon removal strategies, would still be necessary due to perceived technical challenges for decarbonization and electrification of sectors that are difficult to reduce

The 100% renewable energy scenarios differ in terms of milestones and exact technology and resource mix, but do not allow energy sources other than renewables by 2050 or shortly thereafter. Needless to say, achieving a 100% sustainable energy system will require systemic changes in energy market design and infrastructure development. Long-term decisions must be implemented today, regardless of current market trends. Furthermore, decisions are needed today to create an enabling environment where the required infrastructure and capacity are readily available as we transition to a 100% renewable energy future. A crucial approach to determining how to achieve a 100% sustainable energy system is to explore different energy transformation scenarios.

Each of the IRENA scenarios corresponds to a target of 1.5°C by mid-century, which is synonymous with the preferential renewable energy targets set in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. All scenarios examined call for:

• energy-related greenhouse gas emissions must reach zero (or net zero) by 2050, if not sooner
• a rapid reduction in emissions to around half of current levels by the year 2030
• energy efficiency measures need to be significantly increased so that per capita energy intensity and total final energy consumption (TFEC) will be lower in 2050 than today, even as the world population grows

Several steps are proposed to achieve these reductions in final energy consumption, such as greatly improved efficiency in building design and renovation, expanded use of heat pump technologies and demand-side management strategies.

Electrification

Perhaps the most important common finding across all scenarios is that the total final energy consumption (TFEC) of electricity will grow substantially over the next thirty years, partly due to the electrification of the industrial, transport and construction sectors. A general increase in the number of electrical goods worldwide and a general increase in sector coupling applications are also important contributing factors. Electrification could supply 50% to more than 90% of TFEC by 2050, compared to around 20% in 2022. Consequently, there is a need for a significant amount of new electricity capacity and infrastructure facilitation to meet the needs of these sectors . .

The overall rapid expansion of the electricity sector and the growth of variable renewable energy sources (VRE) will require a transformation of the transmission and distribution capabilities of the electricity grid. This will require major investments to expand and improve the network, leading to smart and highly digitalized networks, such as improvements in the control and monitoring of networks. Additional storage capacities and different storage technologies will also be required.

Finally, sector coupling is an important requirement to align VRE and flexible demand. Grid flexibility, achieved through storage technologies that span timescales from hourly to daily to seasonal, demand-side load management and regional energy trading, will be a key driver for a stable and reliable carbon-free energy system that still meets consumer demands.

Solar wind

For solar PV, Dramatic growth is expected in both distributed (rooftop) residential and commercial systems as well as large-scale utility-scale systems. Considerable for wind growth in the use of offshore and onshore wind energy to be expected. In all scenarios these mainly involve other sustainable technologies Hydropowerbut also sustainable modern biomass use, geo- and solar thermal systemsAnd wave and tidal systems will be relevant, but no other generation technology will come close to the growth that will be achieved by wind and solar energy.

Biomass

The four scenarios that include bioenergy show that biomass technologies could supply anywhere from 6% to more than 20% of all primary energy by mid-century. Bioenergy's contribution is most prominent in the residential and industrial heating sectors, where it is expected to provide hot water and steam for households, as well as industries such as cement, steel, paper and pulp. The share of traditional biomass use will be largely replaced by modern biomass use, which takes into account air pollution and sustainability as drivers of adoption, and will overall make a marginal contribution to energy supply in 2050.

The contribution of bioenergy is limited in the transport sector, where other options such as electricity and hydrogen are more prominent. Energy generation from biomass is considered a complement to other sources, such as solar energy, wind energy and hydropower.

IRENA recommendations

These resources have the potential to move the world toward current projections for renewable energy goals. It is contrary to the collective findings from the previous paragraphs that this policy paper makes the following recommendations that could facilitate the shift to a more ambitious sustainable energy system:

1. Embrace a 100% renewable energy system and phase out fossil fuels
2. Energy efficiency as a priority: “The [best] energy supplies are those that are not needed”
3. Electrification: a path to a sustainable energy transformation
4. Infrastructure for a resilient, decentralized and flexible energy system
5. International cooperation: paving the way for the transformation of the global energy system

IRENA ends its report with the following conclusion:

“Aiming for a 100% sustainable energy system will be the most compelling way to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy installations. An energy system based entirely on renewables that enjoys broad public support will result in benefits such as cost savings, energy security and a healthier environment. Such a system remains within the limits of what is required for a habitable planet, without costly deviations, stranded investments or long-term CO2 emissions.”