Tariff hikes are imminent for India's telecom sector. Some may say this is justified, as the last increase occurred in December 2021. Industry people expect the increase to be 20-25%. This would mean that keeping your SIM card active would become a more expensive affair. Even now, Airtel and Jio have maintained a minimum active validity recharge of around Rs 150, which is quite expensive for many low-earning Indians. With an expected hike in the next two to three months, the price may increase from Rs 150 to Rs 180-200 points for users to keep their SIM card active.
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Will this lead to people deactivating their second SIM card? Not necessary. Analysts do not expect major SIM consolidation after the upcoming rate increase. While it happened last time when Airtel and Vi lost quite a few subscribers after the hikes, it is not expected this time. Most of the high-paid users are with Jio and Air count, and while Vi manages both a large number of 2G and 4G users. So, due to the limited options, these users don't have many alternatives to choose from.
Furthermore, users now know what to expect from each telecom provider when it comes to rates. So they will stick with their telecom operators no matter how much increase is implemented. Jio is still expected to be the most affordable in the residential segment, while Airtel and Vi will play in the premium tariff segment.
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As for second SIM cards, a marginal increase will not deter users from using a second SIM card, especially if the increase comes after a period of about three years. Users are expected to absorb the increase as telecom operators struggle to generate healthy cash flows at current tariff levels, while their investments are too large.
