A decline in the homicide rate – The New York Times

Crime, murder and mass shootings have dominated the headlines this year. Just over the weekend, nine people were injured in a shooting in Cincinnati, and another in Detroit injured one and four.

But the full crime records tell a different story. Nationally the shootings have stopped 4 percent this year compared to the same time last year. There are fewer murders in big cities 3 percent. If the decline in homicides continues through the rest of 2022, it will be the first year since 2018 that they fell in the US

The drops are small. But they’re welcome news after two years of big increases that left the homicide rate nearly 40 percent higher than it was.

“I’d say I have a closely guarded optimism,” said Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis.

A reason for hope: The probable causes from the peak in homicides in 2020 and 2021.

Disruptions related to Covid have likely led to more homicides and shootings as social services shut down, which had kept people safe, and schools closed, leaving many teens inactive. (My colleagues Thomas Fuller and Tim Arango wrote about the connection between the pandemic and gun violence.) But the US has reopened, which will likely help reverse the effects of the past two years on violent crime.

The aftermath of the George Floyd murder in 2020 has also likely led to increased violence, police-community tensions and reduced law enforcement effectiveness. That effect, too, has diminished as public attention has shifted away from high-profile episodes of police brutality. A similar trend has happened before: after protests over police work broke out between 2014 and 2016, the number of murders increased for two years and then decreased.

2020 has been a chaotic year overall, with Covid, protests over the police and a presidential election. This turmoil caused social discord and anomie, which could contribute to murders: As people lose trust in each other and their institutions, they are more likely to lash out in crime and violence. As chaos diminishes, so does violence.

This kind of good news is rarely reported – an example of what my colleague David Leonhardt has called the media bad news bias. In 2022, the bias of bad news has made many Americans think that violent crime is worse this year, when in the end it isn’t. And this bias has historically also distorted public perceptions of crime and violence.

When the media reports on crime, it almost always involves grim stories. A recent analysis by Bloomberg found that headlines about shootings in New York City have been increasing recently, while the actual number of shootings has remained relatively flat. The old cliché here is that if it bleeds, it leads.

The constant stream of bad news is one reason, experts say, Americans consistently say crime is getting worse when it isn’t. Between the 1990s and 2014, crime — including violent crime and homicides — fell by more than 50 percent in the US. Yet for most of that time, a majority of Americans remained told Gallup that crime had increased compared to the previous year.

The bias of bad news may make Americans more fearful for their safety than they should be. It can also lead to more people believing that criminal justice policies are needed for punishment, or that reforms are increasing crime when it isn’t. For example, in a speech last month, Donald Trump spoke in uncanny detail about several recent assassinations and… called for ‘tough’, ‘dirty’ and ‘mean’ anti-crime policies.

Experts caution against making too many of the year’s trends. The declines so far are relatively small, and they could end in a dip. Robberies and some property crimes occur in major US cities. And America still has far more gun violence than its peers, largely because of widespread gun ownership.

The murder rate “is still significantly higher than it was two or three years ago,” said Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, which tracks U.S. crime records.

But the trend is going in the right direction right now. To get an accurate picture of crime in the US, Americans need to hear that.

Metropolitan Diary: “Amazed I turned to see” an older man over there on the sidewalk.”

Life lived: On TV, Clu Gulager played Billy the Kid in “The Tall Man.” He also appeared in critically acclaimed films such as ‘The Last Picture Show’. Gulager died at 93.

A rainy trading honeymoon: Fresh out acquiring a generation superstar Juan Soto last week, the Padres were humiliated last night in a sweep by the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. San Diego was defeated 20-4 in the series and is now 15 and a half games behind LA in NL West. ouch. Elsewhere, the New York Mets and flamethrowing Jacob deGrom suddenly look scary.

A remarkable return: Minnesota Lynx attacker Napheesa Collier made her season debut last night – about 10 weeks postpartum. She rejoins a team at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

A scary debut: Manchester City was already a runaway favorite to dominate the English Premier League in 2022-23. The debut with two goals of superstar arrival Erling Haaland yesterday underlined every prediction.

Duke Ellington arrived in New York just as the Harlem Renaissance was getting underway. His orchestra became the soundtrack of the era, and he was its icon, a global ambassador for American culture.

The Times asked a dozen musicians, writers and critics to recommend one song to help readers fall in love with Ellington. Their selections include swinging big band tunes, tales of black working-class life, and a song that bandleader Miho Hazama calls “the happiest music in the world”!