With his military on the offensive in Ukraine and all forms of dissent within Russia firmly suppressed, President Vladimir V. Putin will take center stage this week at two major events that will demonstrate his dominance over the country's politics and his determination to will demonstrate to win. Ukraine.
On Tuesday, 71-year-old Putin will formally begin his fifth term as president of Russia during a highly choreographed inauguration ceremony at the Kremlin. On Thursday, he will preside over the Victory Day parade on Red Square, an annual display of military might that for the past two years has sought to symbolically link Russia's war in Ukraine with the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
The Kremlin is also expected to appoint a prime minister five key ministers, including Foreign Affairs and Defense, although the officials in those six posts can simply be reappointed. The shape of the next Russian government will provide signals about the country's direction in the coming years.
Putin won his fifth term in March in an election that was dismissed as a sham by Western countries. Either way, the ceremony will be triumphant and filled with symbolism.
The country's lawmakers, regional governors, religious leaders, senior officials and other guests will wait for Mr Putin to arrive at the Grand Kremlin Palace from the nearby Senate Palace, the site of the presidential office.
Mr Putin will be transported in the newly upgraded version of his Russian-made limousine, state media reported, projecting the message that Russia is capable of sustaining itself despite being largely cut off from Western markets.
As Mr Putin enters, hundreds of Russian officials and guests will line the sides as the orchestra plays a ceremonial tune. Mr Putin will read an oath in which he will swear to “respect and protect the rights and freedoms of people and citizens.” He will then give a short speech.
This time, the ceremony will likely include new elements that emphasize that Russia is a country at war in Ukraine. Soldiers and officers participating will likely be among the guests.
The inauguration will take place just two days before the annual Victory Day parade. Unlike last year, when Russia eagerly awaited Ukraine's counteroffensive, this year Putin will see tanks and soldiers parading across Red Square in a much more emboldened state.
Since last fall, his forces have been on the offensive in Ukraine, steadily attacking the depleted Ukrainian defense line. In recent weeks, Russia has captured one village after another, threatening Ukraine's logistics lines west of the city of Avdiivka.
The results of this progress have been on display in Moscow, where authorities have displayed Western-supplied weapons captured in Ukraine: tanks – with their barrels bent downward to indicate defeat – armored vehicles and other equipment.
“Our victory is inevitable!” one of the posters read as people walked by and took pictures of American Abrams and German Leopard tanks, howitzers and minesweepers. A message on a screen said: “Staff from US, German, French and Polish embassies can skip the line.”
Unlike pre-war parades, leaders of only a handful of former Soviet states and countries with limited status are expected to be present in the international arena.
Among them are the leaders of Laos in Asia, Guinea-Bissau in Africa and Cuba in America. The former Soviet states of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have confirmed their participation.
Cabinet shaking
In recent weeks, government officials and Kremlin observers have wondered what Putin's new cabinet and government would look like. In a country where bureaucratic posts are often based on personal connections and loyalty, ministerial and other high-ranking positions in the Kremlin carry a lot of weight.
By law, the Cabinet of Ministers must resign after Mr Putin is inaugurated. He will then have to nominate a candidate for the post of prime minister to the Duma, the lower house of parliament, which will then nominate ministers.
Several key ministers, including those responsible for defense and foreign policy, are nominated by Mr Putin for approval by the Federation Council, the upper house of parliament.
There is no indication that Mr Putin will replace Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin; Sergei K. Shoigu, the Minister of Defense; or Sergei V. Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs. But there could be a surprise. Even keeping it would send a strong message: that Mr. Putin believes he has a winning team, and that the Kremlin is satisfied with Russia's current progress in Ukraine and its international status.