As global average temperatures rise, the atmosphere will also hold greater amounts of moisture, meaning hurricanes could unleash stronger downpours — as much as 14 percent more at 2 degrees Celsius warming, Knutson said. Sea levels are also expected to rise, contributing to stronger storm surges and devastating impacts on coastal areas. “We’re very confident that sea level rise will continue, and that will exacerbate any situation like the one we’re seeing in Florida,” Knutson said.
Most climatologists agree that the intensity of hurricanes and tropical cyclones will increase as global temperatures rise, and chances are they’ve already started this. Since 1980 there is a increase in the percentage of hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher, and storms have begun to intensify faster.
Right now, even if countries meet their COP26 commitments, we will likely hit 2 degrees Celsius of global warming — a scenario where coastal areas in hurricane-prone regions will face an unprecedented existential crisis. Sea level rise will be a common problem, but will also pose a particular threat during extreme weather events, leading to more violent storm surges and overland flooding that will destroy infrastructure and deplete local and national resources.
Marshall Shepherd, a climatologist and former president of the American Meteorological Society, says the increasing threat of tropical storms is a reality that can no longer be ignored — and yet a reality we don’t seem to be adapting to. “In some ways, these aren’t real natural disasters anymore,” he says. The fact that we continue to put human infrastructure and people in the path of these hurricanes, he argues, means we can view them not as freak events, but as problems of our own making.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Fort Myers, Florida, was the country’s sixth fastest-growing area from 2020 to 2021. The fastest development there still takes place along the coastline, with little regard for rising sea levels or an increased likelihood of extreme weather. Mitigation efforts such as sea defenses can be effective in protecting properties from smaller storms, but walls would have to be over 300 feet high to protect infrastructure from the most intense hurricanes, at a cost that would exceed the value of the property to be protected. “In the future, there must be realistic and smart growth solutions,” Shepherd says.
What realistic and smart growth will look like in reality may be a bitter pill to swallow for those living in coastal floodplains. Rob Young, a geologist and director of the developed coastline study program, says we need to start changing the way we rebuild in the wake of these devastating storms. “There are probably areas where we just shouldn’t put infrastructure in anymore,” Young says. “But it’s really hard to make that call after an emergency when everyone’s just trying to make themselves whole again.”
The complete destruction of Mexico Beach, Florida, by Hurricane Michael in 2018, which bombarded the area with 255 mph winds and a 17-foot storm surge, is a prime example, he says. The city’s rebuilding strategy involved raising homes at least 18 feet off the ground to withstand future storm surges. “But they’re still building in a flood zone,” Young says. “We just don’t have the right kinds of incentives or impediments to change that economic calculus yet — anywhere, not just in Florida.”
Whether communities are rethinking where and how they live, hurricanes and tropical cyclones will almost certainly grow stronger and more deadly. The threat is clear – how humanity will respond to it is not.