Energy crisis warning as Brits could face 10-hour blackout amid horror winter | Science | News

Britons have been told there could be 10 hours of power outages this winter if imports from Europe are reduced due to its own shortages, which could be a “very possible” scenario according to energy analysts. As the Russian president continues to drain Europe, the threat of energy shortages has soared this winter, while demand is high. Meanwhile Great Britain exchanges electricity with other countries on the continent and imports gaswhich are also coming under pressure from drought in Norway and nuclear problems in France.

The leading energy analysts LCP, when examining the “highly possible scenario” that energy shortages in Europe would hamper the chances of meeting the UK’s electricity needs, have found that power supply cannot meet demand for a whole 10 hours this winter. , according to a report in the Telegraaf.

Fortunately, ministers’ move not to shut down coal plants will prevent this figure from rising to as much as 29 hours, the analysts said.

But the National Grid Electricity System Operator, which released an early supply forecast in July, only suspected the power outage would last just six minutes, though its analysis assumes interconnectors to Europe will send more than 5.7 gigawatts of electricity when need in the UK.

Since then, fears that critical imports could be cut have soared as France’s power consumption plummets, while the UK’s largest gas importer, Norway, has also threatened to curtail its exports to Britain amid Europe’s energy crisis.

Now National Grid will provide an updated outlook after criticism that it failed to take into account the stress on the European system.

The organization may also need to “take drastic action and disconnect customers, such as energy-intensive industries, from the grid” if it fails to balance the system when it comes under stress.

Chris Matson, partner at LCP, said: “As Europe boiled through this summer’s heatwave, it was simultaneously sowing the seeds for further pain this winter.

“Due to the extreme drought and lack of water affecting hydroelectric systems in key interconnector markets such as Norway, coupled with the problems we see in France with their nuclear reactors, there are serious doubts about the availability of electricity coming in. GB of the continent that is critical to our security of supply.”

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And despite France’s plunging nuclear power production, which fell 40 percent in August due to cracks in its aging reactors, the UK has signed an energy cooperation agreement in a bid to keep the lights on.

A Downing Street spokesperson said: “As our people face a difficult winter with huge uncertainty over energy supplies and the cost of living, Prime Minister and President Macron underlined the importance of working together to end dependence on Russian power. energy and to strengthen energy security.”

But Simon Cran-McGreehin, chief of analysis at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, warned that this agreement will not prevent a “rough winter.”

He told Express.co.uk: “Increased energy cooperation between the UK and France would be another key tool to sustain energy supplies this winter, but the gas crisis is so severe that there are no guarantees.

“National Grid and other system operators will get us through the winter, with a mix of energy resources, including our renewables, which are not limited by the supply of fossil fuels, but it can be rough.

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“There is literally a war going on, and any problems this winter would be a result of our reliance on gas exploited by Russia, and decisions by the UK and EU to counter Russian aggression by taking gas. “

Meanwhile in Norway, the UK’s main gas supplier responsible for about 60 percent of the country’s total demand, a drought has cut the country’s hydroelectric production. This has forced Oslo to consider limiting its exports to Britain over concerns about its own supply crisis. The country has also sent more gas to mainland Europe to account for reduced Russian supplies.

Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief analyst at consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, has warned that both factors could be a concern for Britain. He told Express.co.uk: “You have European provinces trying to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, and as a result, Norway has increased its gas supply to the UK and Europe.

“Norway is one of the countries with a very dry summer, so the water levels are much lower in terms of hydropower, so Norway has had less hydropower, meaning Norway has had to use more of its own gas, which in turn means less to export gas.”

However, National Grid has emphasized that it will take measures such as paying households to use off-peak electricity to avoid power outages, although leading energy companies have warned that this may not work. It has also been preparing for a four-day period of planned blackouts in a “worst-case scenario”, although it says this is highly unlikely.

The UK’s reliability standards allow for a maximum of three hours per year when the demand for power exceeds the supply, and in which case National Grid steps in to try to balance the system by using tactics such as lowering the voltage or by having generators increase the output.

While LCP has warned that blackouts can last up to 10 hours, National Grid says shortages can normally be managed without significant consumer impact.

A spokesperson for National Grid ESO said: “We have published an early winter outlook to help the industry prepare for this winter.

“In early fall, we will be publishing a full winter forecast that will be based on verifiable market data and extensive stakeholder engagement, including system administrators in other countries, to ensure our analysis is as robust as possible.”