For example, machine translation from one language to another used to be a joke; some readers may have heard the apocryphal story of the Russian-English translation program that took “the spirit was willing, but the flesh was weak” and ended with “the vodka was good, but the flesh was spoiled.” These days, translation programs may not produce great literature, but they serve many purposes. And that applies in many areas.
You can argue that what we often call artificial intelligence is not really intelligence. Indeed, it can be a long time before machines can be truly creative or provide deep insight. But how much of what people do is truly creative or deeply insightful? (Indeed, how much of what is published in academic journals – a field I know quite well – meets those criteria?)
Many knowledge jobs are therefore eminently replaceable.
What will this mean for the economy?
It is difficult to predict exactly how AI will affect the demand for knowledge workers, as it is likely to vary depending on the industry and specific tasks. However, it is possible that in some cases AI and automation can perform certain knowledge-based tasks more efficiently than humans, potentially reducing the need for some knowledge workers. Think of tasks such as data analysis, research and writing reports. However, it is also worth noting that AI and automation can also create new jobs for knowledge workers, particularly in areas related to AI development and deployment.
OK, I didn’t write the paragraph you just read; ChatGPT did so in response to the question “How will AI influence the demand for knowledge workers?” The giveaway, for me at least, is that I still refuse to use “impact” as a verb. And it was not explicitly explained why we should generally not expect an impact on total employment. But it was arguably better than what many people, including some people who think they’re smart, would have written.
In the long run, productivity gains in knowledge industries, like previous gains in traditional industries, will enrich society and improve our lives in general (unless Skynet kills us all). But in the long run, we’re all dead, and even before that, some of us may be unemployed or earning much less than we expected given our expensive educations.