According to one expert, Putin will likely be killed by his own allies before he has a chance to launch a nuclear strike. Tensions rise when Moscow started today with mock referendums, which are probably large parts of Ukraine annexed by Russia. Putin and its allies have made a series of thinly veiled threats against Ukraine and the West, claiming they nuclear weapons to defend the illegally annexed territories.
However, experts have argued that Putin is either bluffing or not understanding the situation at his own risk.
Professor Peter Duncan at the UCL School of Slavic and East European Studies (SSEES) said: express.co.uk that Putin was “isolated from reality” and would likely be killed before he could pull the nuclear trigger.
Putin has made a series of mistakes since he launched his invasion of Ukraine. He underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people to resist and the determination of NATO. Now he has summoned an unpopular mobilization that could threaten his position at home.
Prof Duncan said: “The bottom line is that Putin is isolated from reality. He just doesn’t understand anything about Russia, what people in Russia think, or what people think abroad, in other words, everywhere. And that’s why he’s wrong after making a mistake.”
Part of this, according to Professor Duncan, is that Putin’s security forces and allies are afraid of him, misleading him about the reality on the ground in Ukraine.
He said: “It’s still this old problem that people are afraid to tell him the truth. Especially the FSB is afraid to tell him the truth, so he just doesn’t know what’s going on.”
However, if Professor Duncan is wrong and Putin’s allies follow him into the abyss of nuclear war, he expects a strong response from Ukraine’s western allies.
He believes the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would lead to a “massive conventional attack on Russian forces” in the Black Sea region or Ukraine.
The situation could then spiral out of control, as nuclear-armed NATO and Russia would effectively be at war. However, Putin would likely refrain from using nuclear weapons on Western troops or cities for fear of a “great counter-attack” from NATO.
In recent days, the rhetoric surrounding Russia’s nuclear weapons has turned into thinly veiled or even outright threats.
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Yesterday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened to use Russia’s “strategic nuclear deterrent” to defend territory expected to be illegally annexed to Russia in the coming days.
Earlier this week, Putin pledged to “use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia”. He added: “It’s not a bluff.”
However, the referendums taking place in southern and eastern Ukraine are unlikely to deter Kiev or its western allies from standing up to Putin’s aggression.
Time will tell how the Kremlin, and especially Putin himself, will respond to Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensive on what Moscow will say is Russian territory but what the West, and most of the world, sees as stolen Ukrainian land.