Rishi Sunak today got a glimmer of hope from a leading pollster in bringing about a miraculous recovery from the general election. Tory colleague Lord Hayward said the Conservatives still have a “narrow road” to victory when Britain next goes to the polls, despite Labor winning the West Lancashire by-election by a 10 per cent margin.
The polling expert highlighted a number of reasons why the midterm election result may not spell disaster for the Tories.
Lord Hayward told the Express: “First, the party will be relieved amid the nurses’ and ambulances’ strikes that the outcome was no worse.
“Second, that it was no worse than recent midterm elections, if anything better.
“The 10 per cent swing is the same as Stretford and Urmston a few weeks ago, but less than Chester, which is of course just two months ago.
And the result is better than the polls would currently show.
“If you take that blow, Labor’s lead would be somewhere just under 15 per cent, against the 20, 22 per cent they are currently showing.
“So then you come to the conclusion that an election is not for a year and a half.
“It would always be dangerous because there are always anti-government movements against the incumbent government in virtually every parliament.”
Lord Hayward added: “There is a narrow path for the Conservatives to victory in the next election.
“But as each month goes by, especially with labor relations issues, that road narrows.
“It is the strikes that have prevented Rishi Sunak from delivering his overall message.”
Labour’s Ashley Dalton won a majority of 8,326 over Conservative candidate Mike Prendergast in yesterday’s by-election, with a turnout of less than a third.
An easy Labor grab in the constituency was expected.
It was the first time the Tory vote had fallen below 30 per cent since the 1997 general election, which Tony Blair won by a landslide victory.
In her victory speech, Ms Dalton told the Conservatives to “get out of the way”, adding: “Let Labor take over and it’s time for a general election.”
The result of the by-election comes as the Tories are trailing Labor in the polls.
Techne’s latest tracker poll for the Express shows Sir Keir Starmer’s party has a 21-point lead over the Conservatives.
According to the survey of 1,624 British voters conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, 47 percent support Labor and 26 percent support Sunak’s party.